So it’s here, the big one. I naturally say that about any clash between Wales and England, but to be honest I’m not sure just how true that is now. It’s a big clash, no doubt, and will tell us a lot about how this team are progressing – but the big one?
The media would have us believe it is. I’ve even seen it written (in the Guardian) that this is the biggest 80 minutes for Wales under Gatland. But that somehow misses the World Cup games, including a semi final.
I would also argue that both the Irish and French clashes are bigger. We needed the Ireland win to develop momentum, and I place them as harder to beat than England. France are likely the best team in the tournament (hard to tell with them having only played Italy so far), so that game will be bigger.
Even if we lose this one I see England losing to either France or Ireland (or both), which still sets up a potential title decider against the French. So whilst this is a ‘big’ game, it’s not the be all and end all, and far from the most important 80 minutes this season, never mind under Gatland.
England vs Wales Always Matters
Is England vs Wales REALLY The Big One?
Make no mistake it still matters, a lot. Some may try play down us wanting to beat England, but deep down we all know this matters to us a lot. Getting one over on our bigger neighbours is always a big moment for us. And with total games won currently at 56 to 54 in England’s favour, we could do with a few wins!
And it matters for this team as well. We need to start winning games where we have the favourites tag, and we need to start putting games like this to bed if we want to take on the big guns in the Southern Hemisphere. Could you see any of the ‘big 3′ losing this game? I certainly don’t.
Hype
My concern is the over hyping we are starting to get. It happens every time we win a few games. This time you can see the justification, Wales are a team that are going places, with some very young, talented players.
But there are a lot of youngsters, so mistakes will happen. These aren’t grizzled veterans who know how to grind out wins when the opposition raise there game. There are signs we are learning it, but we’re not there yet.
England vs Wales – the Player Match Ups
It’s easy to see why we are favourites though. Both teams may be 2 from 2, but Wales have been far more impressive in doing so, even if I am seeing some English fans blaming it on luck and referring decisions.
And when you look at the match ups, you see why so many fans are so confident. The England side are inexperienced (they have the least caps of any English team since 1989). In fact 7 of them have under 3 caps, and they haven’t even played at Twickenham for England yet! Our side has more Twickenham experience than theirs.
More importantly a player by player match up does well for us. There are some very good players in that England team, but they are against very good players with more experience. For instance I rate Dan Cole highly, he is turning into a top International. But Adam Jones is one of, if not the best, tight head playing the International game. Same on the other side of the scrum where Corbisiero takes on Gethin Jenkins. Again the English man has a lot of talent, but he is up against the workhorse that is Jenkins, and few will ever get one up on him.
In the 2nd row Alun-Wyn Jones’ lack of game time is a worry, but I’m not at all a fan of Botha who works hard but lacks the talent for the International game (in my opinion).
The backrow certainly favours Wales. I’m a big fan of Robshaw, but he is not and never will be a 7 in the classic mold. The breakdown is all important, we saw vs Scotland how important having a real 7 is, Rennie took us apart on the floor, stealing and disrupting ball. Warburton is likely to do that again here.
Lydiate is at the top of his game, and is turning into a World class 6 in his own right. He’s not afraid to do the dirty stuff, whereas I find Croft too lose for a 6, more likely to be found in the backs than a ruck. Fine in broken field, but not in tighter games. At 8 Faletau has more experience than the newly starting Morgan. Both are fine players, but Faletau’s experience should give him the edge.
The Backs
Halfback too. Dickson has been an improvement on Youngs for England, but that’s not hard. Don’t think him that good at the International level, whilst Mike is capable of dominating quality 9s when his head is in the right place.
Priestland makes us tick. A clever distribution game bringing the big backs into play (though Roberts takes at least as much ball off the 9 these days), quality kicking from hand and enough of a break to check opposition backrows. Farrell has played well at 10, but hasn;t been there this season, a few cameos aside, and is very new to the International scene. Expect to see a lot of kicking from him, especially as England will be targeting the Welsh lineout.
The centres show some of Englands best finds. Barritt is a rock in defence, and whilst he is up against the power of Roberts, nothing makes me think he will take a step back. Alongside him is Tuilagi, who hits hard and runs a good line.
But I am not convinced by their creativity, our defence is quality, and when going the other way Tuilagi has a habit of wandering out of position, or coming up to quick. Roberts and Jon Davies are developing a good understanding.
The back 3 shows England at their most dangerous. Foden is a quality player, especially in attack. Strettle a fine broken play runner, and whilst Ashton may be off form, he can still run some dangerous lines of allowed to.
Our boys are big lumps, but with pace and skill, North and Cuthbert can hit through or go around people, and Strettle’s size may be telling there. But our boys are youngsters, and there positioning can sometimes be in question, they’re going to need to be at the top of their game.
Whilst Halfpenny is a quality player in attack, and can tackle with the best of them, I am worried about him under the high ball. Expect him to see a lot of early high ones put on him, with Ashton and Croft breathing down his neck.
So an Easy Wales Win?
That makes it sound like I am predicting an easy win. I really am not. Whilst a lot of these English players may not have the match ups needed to say they will be favourites, neither should they be discounted.
As I said there is some real quality in England, and we don’t know enough about some of them on the International stage to make too many predictions. If they can click then Wales will have to withstand a great deal of pressure, especially as Farrell will be looking to ensure it is played in the right areas of the field, from England’s perspective.
I have us down to win, probably by about 8. But that still gives England enough margin for error that a couple of silly mistakes, such as AWJ getting carded in 2010, or a few moments of magic from the young English players, could mean that we will be going back to Cardiff with another Twickenham loss.
And don’t discount home advantage. I may have written on why I am ignoring the Twickenham history, and stated that the English players don’t have much experience there, but it is still a home tie against a good level of opposition. Anything less than our best out there and we could find our optimism is shoved right down our throats.
I predict a Welsh win, but by nothing like as much as some seem to think. I’m confident, but it’s far from in the bag – and a few fans might want to remember that given some of the premature gloating I’ve been seeing!
What do you guys think?
England vs Wales – the Teams
England : 15-Ben Foden, 14-Chris Ashton, 13-Manu Tuilagi, 12-Brad Barritt, 11-Chris Ashton, 10-Owen Farrell, 9-Lee Dickson; 1 Alex Corbisiero, 2-Dylan Hartley, 3-Dan Cole, 4-Mouritz Botha, 5-Geoff Parling, 6-Tom Croft, 7-Chris Robshaw, 8-Ben Morgan.
Replacements: 16-Rob Webber, 17-Matt Stevens, 18-Courtney Lawes, 19-Phil Dowson, 20-Ben Youngs, 21-Toby Flood, 22-Mike Brown
Wales : 15-Leigh Halfpenny, 14-Alex Cuthbert, 13-Jonathan Davies, 12-Jamie Roberts, 11-George North, 10-Rhys Priestland, 9-Mike Phillips; 1-Gethin Jenkins, 2-Ken Owens, 3-Adam Jones, 4-Alun Wyn Jones, 5-Ian Evans, 6-Dan Lydiate, 7-Sam Warburton, 8-Toby Faletau.
Replacements: 16-Richard Hibbard, 17-Paul James, 18-Ryan Jones, 19-Justin Tipuric, 20-Lloyd Williams, 21-Stephen Jones, 22-Scott Williams.
