Dirty Balls Rugby

The IRB has released its annual statistical review of the RBS Six Nations and whilst it might seem a little futile to continue poking the rotting carcass of Scotland’s performance with a stick, it does make for interesting reading.

The last time I posted some stats on the site someone quoted Ebbe Skovdahl who said “statistics are like miniskirts: They give you good ideas but hide the important things.” However, statistics can also challenge our perceptions, especially those that may not necessarily be a reflection of the truth.

I’m not going to comment too much on what these statistics might show. Those of us with any energy left can duke it out in the comments box. But the statistics certainly raise some interesting questions.

I’ve pulled out what I think are the most interesting points in terms of Scotland. If you want to read the full report you can find it here.

The Scrum

Scotland’s scrum was held up as a major cause for concern and has been for a while. There were calls for wholesale changes in the front row and Jon Welsh’s performance in the Italy game might make it difficult for Chunk to regain a starting position.

But the IRB report claims that the importance of the scrum is declining, pointing out that Wales won the championship despite only having possession from the scrum on 14 occasions throughout the entire tournament.

From a Scottish point of view things might not as bad as they might seem. Scotland won 89% of scrums from their own put in (3^rd best in the tournament and only 1% behind France in 2nd) and managed to win 13% of scrums from an opposition feed (joint 4^th with Ireland).

France and Wales are streets ahead of other teams winning around a quarter of scrums from an opposition put in.

Breakdown

Another criticism levelled at Scotland during the tournament was the loss of ball at the breakdown. Again, the IRB stats tell a different story. Scotland managed to retain possession at the breakdown (winning the ball or earning a penalty) 94% of the time; the 2^nd highest performance in the tournament. 

Passing

It might not come as a surprise that Scotland passed the ball more than any other team in the tournament with 7.9 passes completed for every minute of possession. Even our Forwards were getting in on the act making almost 100 more passes that their English counterparts.

It’s also interesting to note that the back row chose to pass more than those in other teams (42% compared with Wales 27%) as did the 2^nd rows (31% compared to Wales 14%).

There report also highlights noticeable differences in the number of passes by 12’s and 13’s. The Scotland centres made the most passes (67) whilst for the second year running the Welsh made the least (40).

Kicking 

In 2011 Scotland had one of the highest kicking averages in the tournament with a rate of 1.3 kicks for every minute of possession. In 2012 Scotland had the lowest kicking rate of any team with a rate of 0.8 kicks which is half England’s rate of 1.6 and below Wales’s 1.4 

Restarts

There is an interesting and marked difference in the way teams are approaching the restart. Scotland and Ireland prefer to kick short (84% & 87% of restarts) and contest the restart whereas Wales and England generally don’t bother and prefer to kick long (both 57% of restarts). In fact Wales didn’t bother to win any of their own restarts in the whole tournament, and it didn’t do them any harm.

Scoring 

Another Six Nations, and another decline in the number tries per game. In 2002 there were an average of 5 tries per game and in 2012 there were just 3.1. Overall there were 29 fewer tries scored this year compared with 10 years ago.

The IRB suggests a number of reasons for this, not least the introduction of specialised defence coaches and the increasing size of players. Despite the presence of such slender figures as Laidlaw, Jones and Hogg in our backs Scotland players are still, on average, the second heaviest team (although this might suggest that someone somewhere might be carrying a little bit too much weight).

But despite the decline in the number of tries being scored by everyone else and Scotland’s new found ability to cross the whitewash, it has not made any difference to the results. So what else might we pick up from the IRB’s report?

The Scottish defence tends to go in the 2^nd half. Of the 11 tries Scotland conceded, 7 came in the 2^nd half.

Scotland are more vulnerable in their own 22 than any other team in the tournament (6 tries) but conceded less from the opposition half than any other side bar Wales (1).

Scotland didn’t attempt a drop goal during the whole tournament.

Scotland were awarded (or won) fewer kickable penalties in the 2^nd half than any other side (2 compared with England, France and Wales’s 8).

Discipline

Of the 13 yellow cards shown in the tournament 5 were flashed in the direction of Scottish players.

On 9 out of the 13 occasions yellow cards were shown, the opposition 15 were unable to score any points whilst players were in the sin-bin. On only one occasion (Wales v Scotland) did the points scored during the sin-binning account for the final points margin between the two sides.

Andy Robinson announced pretty much the team we had all suspected today, with Evans swapping in for the injured Lee Jones and a bit of reshuffle on the bench as one of the extra boys called up to training this week – in this case Jack Cuthbert – was swapped in to the utility back slot for Matt Scott who had filled in at the last minute last weekend. It’s perhaps tough on Scott, but if he keeps his form up for Edinburgh there should be plenty more caps for him. No place for blog favourite Alex Grove despite a strong showing in the A Team game at the start of the campaign, and regularly crossing the line for Worcester. Hogg, De Luca and Blair have recovered from their knocks and I suspect they would fancy having a crack at the Italians if the conditions favour it.

The pack this tournament has had a consistency of selection that is pleasing while the backline has changed considerably from that which faced England many moons ago, and it is perhaps time for them all to reward Robinson with the win he needs to salvage something from this tournament.

Scotland team to face Italy on Saturday: Stuart Hogg, Max Evans, Nick De Luca, Graeme Morrison, Sean Lamont, Greig Laidlaw, Mike Blair; Allan Jacobsen, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton, John Barclay, Ross Rennie, David Denton
Replacements: Scott Lawson, Euan Murray, Al Kellock, Richie Vernon, Chris Cusiter, Ruaridh Jackson, Jack Cuthbert

Neither side headed into this clash at the Aviva Stadium aka Lansdowne Road II aka The Bed Pan having really taken their chances in the tournament thus far. Ireland at least had taken some points from Italy and France although not perhaps as many as they might have liked, while Scotland had none despite deserving more.

Unfortunately, Scotland took a few steps back and in the end an unspectacular but grimly effective Ireland side took the points and the positives.

The first half was pretty decent up to a point, and that point was just after Richie Gray’s astounding dummy on Rob Kearney and the lumbering try that followed. Scotland had the momentum, and were well and truly back in the match. Then a mis-fired kick from Ireland gave Lee Jones an easy mark. Clear the ball, hold out for half time. Simple.

Only Jones passed it to Hogg who tried to run it through an improbably tight gap, and he found that international defences aren’t always as forgiving as the French were to his silky running. Laidlaw couldn’t clear it nearly as far when the Irish pressed, and gifted them an easy attacking platform with which to snatch the momentum back just before half time. Scotland were not out of this match until almost 70 minutes, but that 2-3 minute spell was the only period when they actually acted like it.

The main problem though is still lapses and concentration, and when you mix that in with a relative lack of experience in leadership areas that will lead to poor decision making and silly penalties. What was most worrying was the decision to spurn a try from a second driving maul in favour of 3 points, and then in the second half the decisions to reject the points from the penalties Ireland kept gifting us in favour of chasing increasingly unlikely tries.

They were chasing a game that wasn’t running away from them.

Lamont and Morrison battled manfully, and Morrison caused trouble in defence and several crucial tackles, including holding Bowe up over the line after a mischievous cross field kick from Sexton. Gray and Denton were very good again, and Rennie was taken off a little earlier than he might have liked. John Barclay had another effective game and looked for work ball carrying. The scrum was still fairly poor, and aside from a couple of stolen balls late on from Man of the Match Donnacha Ryan, the lineout was pretty secure. The arrival of Euan Murray did little to change this, in fact the scrum seemed almost to get worse. Top class props with Scottish grannies, look out.

Debut referee Chris Pollock went reasonably well, he listened to his touch judges and acted swiftly when Jones was knocked out and generally gave both sides a fair shout. But the Irish were warned twice for repeated infringement yet the first yellow card came out for Max Evans. Evans (who hasn’t had his troubles to seek these past weeks) was binned after he collided slightly with Keith Earls off the ball who then collapsed to the ground a little too easily. It wouldn’t have been a penalty try, in fact Earls would have been unlikely to get past the other defenders, but the instant he went to ground the damage was done.

Ford and Evans protested, but they sensed as we all did that the game that Scotland didn’t need to chase had up and run away on them again.

Rory has more thoughts on the match over at Rugby World.